The Numbers Behind the Disruption

by Tom Joseph

How “Free and Equal” defeats Gerrymandering

Let’s say your employer holds a popularity contest. The contenders are three people who think they might be popular, and a fourth who management wants to win. The company endorses their favorite and distributes flyers. It’s decided in one round.

This sounds like a primary election in an uncompetitive district. Both play out the same way. At least two people find out they aren’t nearly as popular as they thought. One may offer a challenge but can’t overcome managements’ thumb on the scale. The “insider” wins, undermining faith in the outcome.

A fair popularity contest goes like this. Employees submit a list of their favorite coworkers, resulting in a pool of top prospects. Multiple rounds of elimination reduce the field until a final vote between two people. The winner is always the choice of the majority - the most popular. If we ran the contest each way for both halves of the company, followed by a winner’s face-off, I think you can predict the favorite.

Elections are political popularity contests based on ideologies which span a spectrum. Spectrums placed on populations produce normal distributions, also known as bell-shaped curves. A fair election system will generate a representative at, or near, the center of the ideological bellcurve for each population; an unfair one almost never does.

Two important factors emerge in the context of an election system: apathy and ease of use. Both affect turnouts which have yet to be considered. The company face-off assumes everyone votes. If half the company is unenthusiastic due to inherent unfairness, then the fair contest will have higher participation. If voting in the unfair contest is also relatively cumbersome, then the turnout gap widens.

People in this country are frustrated and want to see change. A nomination featuring a level playing field and familiar tools of engagement has the potential to eclipse our public primary.

Now picture this: the winner of the “People’s Primary” emerges with support from thousands more constituents than one predetermined by their party. The general election now offers an alternate nominee with evidence of more popularity. So, who do you vote for … the candidate who survived a gauntlet, or the one endorsed by management?

The Framers understood that popular sovereignty depends on fairness in elections. History foretold the fall of democracies when the will of the people is undermined. Only a free and equal system can avoid that fate.